This report released in November 2024 authored by Marcia H. Davis, Juan B. Cortes, Rachel E. Durham, and Francesca Gamber, overviews trends in ninth grade success and graduation for first-time high school students in Baltimore City Public Schools (BCPSS). Our focus on ninth grade derives from the abundance of research which indicates that the ninth grade year relates highly to successful high school graduation.  This report tiers measures of ninth grade success into three categories: i) on-time promotion to tenth grade without any course failures in ninth grade, ii) on-time promotion to tenth grade with one or more course failures in ninth grade, and iii) not promoted to tenth grade on time.

Part I of the report uses historical data from several cohorts of students to establish the relationship between ninth grade success and on-time high school graduation. Part II applies the ninth grade success categories to the most recent cohort of ninth grade students available to examine key measures for these students. We conclude the report with a discussion of the findings and how they can contribute to research on early warning indicators, and we detail the efforts BCPSS is taking to target ninth grade success.

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